Freight Under Scrutiny: Where are savings headed?

Looking at the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) for the past year, the graph is revealing, showing a peak of tension that reached almost $2,250/TEU in mid-2025. This surge was no accident: it was the result of a perfect storm where localized congestion at key ports and the massive diversion of routes around the Cape of Good Hope absorbed capacity all at once. However, after that stress, the market has entered a sustained downward trend to the current $1,250, a figure that provides some relief to the bottom line, but which requires careful analysis.

The primary driver of this decline is the sluggishness of global consumption. Demand has yet to recover, which has reduced pressure on cargo holds. Added to this is a structural factor: oversupply. Shipping companies are receiving a wave of new, high-capacity vessels ordered after the pandemic-induced boom. There are simply more ships than cargo. Furthermore, the gradual return to the Suez Canal is injecting even more effective capacity into the system by reducing transit times and increasing fleet turnover.