The EU’s recovery is boosting the outlook for the logistics property market

US pressure bears fruit
This trend towards increased defence spending has intensified—and how—following the commitments made by Member States at the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) summit in June 2025. At that summit, US President Donald Trump secured a commitment from NATO member states to increase their defence budgets by 5% of their GDP, progressively over a 10-year period.

US pressure in this regard is nothing new. Even during his first term, the current US president asked his allies to increase defence spending, arguing that many of these countries were not paying their fair share within the framework of this organisation. Looking back, other presidents such as Bush, or more recently, Barack Obama, had already requested, albeit not in such a forceful and direct manner, an increase in defence spending by NATO countries.

One of the arguments put forward by Trump at that hearing was—or rather, had already been—at that time (2017), the threats posed by Russia. In particular, those relating to NATO’s eastern and southern borders.

Among these new commitments made in June 2025, it is worth highlighting the stance of Spain, the country that has most firmly opposed this increase in defence spending. Prior to the summit, the Spanish government described the commitment to this 5% figure as unreasonable.

In practice, although Spain did not commit to reaching that 5%, NATO itself confirmed last March that our country has already increased its defence spending to 2% of its GDP. As of today, and according to NATO figures, countries such as Poland have already increased their defence spending to 4.3% of their GDP, followed by others such as Lithuania, which has increased it to 4%, Latvia to 3.7%, Estonia to 3.4% and Denmark to 3.3%.

The focus is on Russia, which NATO considers its greatest threat. Specifically, the organisation points out that the Russian state has committed airspace violations in recent years, as well as acts of sabotage and various forms of interference, in addition to the military offensive against Ukraine.

1.5% of this total will be allocated to ‘European logistics’
This 5% commitment is in turn divided into two parts: 3.5%, which will be allocated to direct military expenditure (salaries for military personnel, air defence, weapons, etc.); and the remaining 1.5%, which will go towards what many media outlets have termed ‘European logistics’. This latter concept includes, amongst other things, investment in critical energy or logistics infrastructure such as ports, airports, roads and bridges.

In this context, this increase in defence spending could drive a new phase of investment in the logistics sector, according to one of the latest reports from Patrizia, the company specialising in investment and real asset management. The multinational suggests that this new approach will boost demand for assets linked to energy, industrial and transport hubs.

But before delving into this specific issue, Patrizia’s report outlines the current landscape of the logistics sector. Firstly, the document notes that investors remain confident in logistics assets; assets that have grown from accounting for 13% of total real estate capital in 2018 to 22% by 2025. Secondly, it delves into several factors driving logistics: primarily, the boom in e-commerce, the urbanisation of European society, and the return of manufacturing to the Old Continent. In fact, this last point warrants a brief aside: the manufacturing industry in the eurozone has recently reached its highest level in the last four years, driven, among other factors, by the upturn experienced by factories located in Germany.

In the multinational’s view, this climate lays the foundations for logistics – and consequently logistics real estate – to grow in 2026 and beyond. Furthermore, returning to the issue of increased defence spending, the report describes this as a key factor that will generate new business opportunities.